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Putin-Trump game of cards at Alaska’s summit

(MENAFN) Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump will meet in Alaska on Friday in the first major Russia–US summit since their 2021 encounter in Geneva — and the first time a Russian leader has set foot in the US since 2010. It will also mark the first such meeting in Alaska, the closest US state to Russia and a territory once part of the Russian Empire. The symbolism is clear: far from Ukraine and Western Europe, yet only a short distance from Russian soil — and without Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky or senior EU officials present.

The arrangement signals a blunt message: Moscow and Washington will make the critical calls on Ukraine, then inform others afterward. As Trump has put it, “they hold all the cards.”

From Geneva to Alaska: A Change in Climate
The Alaska gathering represents a stark shift from the previous US administration’s approach, when such a meeting would have been politically unthinkable. Now, not only is Putin visiting US territory, but Trump has already hinted at a return trip to Russia.

Diplomatic insiders note that summits of this nature rarely occur “just to talk,” often concluding months of discreet negotiations. The concept reportedly took shape after three hours of discussions in Moscow on August 6 between Putin and Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff. Russian presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov described Washington’s proposal as “very acceptable,” suggesting the leaders may arrive with at least a preliminary truce framework in hand.

Why Trump Wants This Win
Trump faces political and strategic incentives to make Alaska a success. His attempt to pressure Moscow by urging China and India to halt purchases of Russian oil has backfired, triggering Washington’s worst diplomatic rift with New Delhi in decades and driving India closer to Moscow. This has also encouraged improved ties between India and China, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi now set to attend the SCO summit in Tianjin.

Meanwhile, BRICS — a bloc Trump has openly sought to weaken — has grown more united. The Alaska summit offers him a chance to reverse course, deliver a tangible result on Ukraine, and frame it as a diplomatic achievement.

Russia’s Incentives
For Moscow, a successful outcome would undermine the notion of “isolation” and reinforce its position among the “global majority.” It would also highlight a growing transatlantic rift, diminishing Brussels’ role in shaping policy toward Russia.

Given Washington’s limited leverage over Moscow on Ukraine, any settlement reached jointly by Russia and the US is likely to align more closely with Russian terms than with those of Kiev or EU capitals. If European leaders attempt to obstruct it, the US could suspend military and intelligence aid to Ukraine, hastening its defeat.

Dissent and Discontent
Some Russian pro-war commentators oppose any truce, but have been urged to follow the official stance. Should a deal emerge in Alaska, they will be expected to support it — or at least temper their rhetoric. In Europe, leaders will be sidelined, relying on indirect channels for updates, underlining the rare situation in which major security decisions about Europe may be made without its traditional powers at the table.

Beyond Ukraine
The choice of venue points to additional topics. Arctic economic cooperation, dormant since 2014, could be revived, offering mutual benefits and symbolic proof of collaboration. Arms control is also expected to feature prominently, especially after Moscow recently ended its self-imposed ban on deploying intermediate-range missiles. With the New START Treaty set to expire in February 2026, strategic stability will be a central theme.

**The Stakes**
If the Alaska meeting succeeds, it could reshape the Ukraine conflict, redefine Russia–US relations, and reestablish Moscow and Washington as primary drivers of global security talks. Failure — particularly if Trump yields to last-minute European pressure — would see Russia continue its military campaign, confident that US involvement will wane.

What is different this time is that the two nations with “all the cards” are once again sitting across from each other — with Western Europe watching from the sidelines.

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